Inflation’s Cooling… but Not Enough — and the Fed’s Walking a Tightrope

The Federal Reserve just wrapped up its latest policy meeting, and here’s the kicker — they’re making major decisions without official data. Yup, the government shutdown means no jobs report, no clear read on the economy, and basically no flashlight in a dark room.

Still, the Fed is expected to trim interest rates by another 0.25%, marking their second cut this year. It’s like driving with your eyes closed, but hey — at least they’ve got seatbelts on.

So what’s happening?

Private data sources (like ADP and Revelio Labs) are waving red flags — job growth is slowing hard. ADP says private payrolls dropped 32,000 in September, and across industries like construction, retail, and manufacturing, job losses are piling up. The only bright spot? Healthcare added 249,000 jobs — apparently, people still need doctors even when the economy catches a cold.

Meanwhile, inflation cooled slightly, rising 3% year over year on a core basis (that’s the Fed’s preferred number). But let’s not celebrate too soon — it’s still above their 2% target, and some insiders think inflation could stay sticky as tariffs and rising retail prices creep in.

One economist put it simply: “It’s not the 1970s, but it kinda feels like stagflation.” Translation — slow growth, high prices, and a Fed that can’t seem to win.