Cooler Inflation Saved the Month. Bitcoin Is Coiling for a Move.

Yo traders, Ezekiel here! Quick and sharp today, the key market moves, the story behind them, and how to trade it without losing your cool.

• Today’s market mayhem. S&P 500, EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and XAU/USD today
• The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge cooled, and a blowout Amazon quarter helped stocks bounce back to close a wild month
• Bitcoin ends July almost exactly where it spent the whole month, coiled in a tight range after surviving one shock after another
• The Double Top and Double Bottom strategy that 596 backtested trades fixed, and the mechanical filters that finally make these reversals profitable, in our latest video

A calmer close to a chaotic month. Here’s the final scoreboard for July. 📈

Two days ago the Fed had traders convinced inflation was winning. Then the actual inflation data showed up and said, not so fast. 👋

The June PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, fell 0.1% on the month, putting headline inflation at 3.7% annually. Core PCE rose just 0.1% and sits at 3.3% year over year. Not perfect, still above target, but clearly cooling, not accelerating. 📉

That was the reassurance markets needed after Wednesday’s Fed scare. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to 7,489.72, clawing back a chunk of the meltdown.

Big Tech earnings split the market down the middle. Amazon soared on a monster quarter, while Apple sank, a perfect snapshot of a market that is rewarding winners and punishing anyone who disappoints. Rising oil on the final day kept a lid on the enthusiasm. 🏦

Zoom out and July was a rollercoaster, a broken Iran ceasefire, a semiconductor rout, a hawkish Fed hold, and now a cooler inflation print to close it out. Exhausting, but the index survived roughly flat.

🤔 Asia Forex Mentor Insights

The lesson of this month is that the data still wins. The Fed can talk hawkish and spook everyone, but a soft PCE print quietly resets the whole picture two days later. That’s why we keep saying trade the data, not the narrative.

Heading into August, the calendar is the map. Watch the next jobs report and CPI, because they decide whether the September rate hike debate heats up or fades. For forex, a cooling inflation trend caps how hawkish the Fed can get, which caps dollar upside. EUR/USD above 1.15 keeps the bulls in control. Respect the levels, and don’t overtrade a quiet month-end. 📊

Here’s a fun fact to close out July. Bitcoin started the month around $61,900, spiked to $65,100 mid month, and is finishing right around $64,211. After everything, it’s basically flat. 🟢

And what a month it had to absorb. A collapsed Iran ceasefire, fresh airstrikes, oil above $90, a Fed that spooked stocks into a 1,100 point plunge, and $310 million in liquidations. Any one of those a year ago might have triggered a crypto crash. This time, BTC just coiled. 🧙

That word, coiled, is the whole story. Bitcoin has spent weeks compressing into a tighter and tighter range between roughly $62K and $65K, absorbing shock after shock without breaking either way. 📈

Sentiment is still nervous. The Fear & Greed Index closed the month at 25, back in Extreme Fear, even though price barely dropped. That’s a crowd braced for pain that hasn’t come. 🧐

🤔 Asia Forex Mentor Insights

Tight ranges are pressure cookers, and this one has been building for a month. When price refuses to break despite every excuse to fall, and sentiment stays fearful the whole time, the eventual resolution tends to be sharp. The longer the coil, the bigger the move out of it. 🧠

Your plan writes itself. Mark $62K support and $65K resistance, and let Bitcoin tell you which way it wants to go. A daily close outside that range with volume is the trigger, not a hunch. With the September Fed meeting as the next big catalyst, this coil probably resolves in August. Be patient, be ready, and trade the break, not the boredom. Trade the data, not the drama. 📊

This range has aged us all a little 💀

The plan was solid right up until the group chat spoke 😅