Hey traders, Ezekiel back with you! Let’s cut to the chase, here’s your speedy breakdown of what the markets are doing, why it should be on your radar, and how to trade around it like a pro.
- Today’s market mayhem. S&P 500, EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and XAU/USD today
- June inflation just posted its biggest monthly drop since April 2020, and the Fed’s rate hike threat basically evaporated
- Bitcoin ripped back above $65,000 for the first time since June 22, with $181 million pouring into spot ETFs
- The MACD divergence exit most traders get wrong, and the 5R method proven across 355 trades, in our latest video
WEEKLY MARKET MAYHEM🔥
One inflation print, and suddenly everything is green. Here’s the damage. 📈
June Inflation Just Fell Off a Cliff, and the Fed’s Hike Threat Died With It.
Well, that escalated downward quickly. June CPI fell 0.4% from May, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, and economists were only looking for a 0.2% decline. 📉
Year over year, headline inflation cooled to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, was flat on the month and slowed to 2.6% annually from 2.9%.
For context, this is the same inflation problem that had new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounding hawkish enough in June to have half the committee penciling in a rate hike. One data point later, that entire narrative is on life support.
Markets did the obvious thing and celebrated. The S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,572.40 as tech led the way, and traders quickly repriced the odds of the Fed simply holding steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting. 🎉
Falling oil prices earlier in the month did a lot of the heavy lifting here, which is exactly the disinflationary channel everyone was watching after the Iran mess.
🤔 Asia Forex Mentor Insights
This is the single most important data point of the quarter, and here’s why. The entire 2026 macro story has been one question, will the Fed hike again? A print like this doesn’t just lower the odds, it flips the direction of the whole conversation.
For forex, a less hawkish Fed removes a pillar of dollar strength. EUR/USD holding above 1.14 keeps the door open toward 1.15 and 1.16, especially if the July meeting confirms a hold. But don’t get carried away on one print, this Fed said data dependent and meant it. Watch PPI and the next CPI before calling it a trend. 📊
Bitcoin Ripped Back Above $65K, and the ETF Money Led the Charge.
Soft inflation is rocket fuel for risk assets, and Bitcoin took the hint immediately. BTC surged 3.62% to top $65,000, touching $65,100, its first time above that level since June 22. 🚀
Ethereum did even better, jumping 5.17%, and total crypto market cap climbed from $2.23 trillion to $2.30 trillion in a single day.
The logic is simple. Cooler inflation means a Fed that stays on hold, which means cheaper money for longer, which is the environment crypto loves most. 💰
The flows backed it up. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over $181 million, with $139 million landing in BlackRock’s IBIT alone. That’s the second strong inflow signal in a week, after the streak snapping haul earlier this month. 🏦
And yet sentiment still hasn’t caught up. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 25, barely off the floor and still in Extreme Fear. Price is up nearly 5% on the week and traders are still bracing for pain.
🤔 Asia Forex Mentor Insights
That gap between price and sentiment is the whole story. When an asset rallies while everyone stays scared, the move usually has room left, because the crowd that would chase a breakout hasn’t even started buying yet. 🧠
Tactically, $65K was resistance and is now the level to defend. Hold above it and the next real test is the $68K to $70K zone. Lose it quickly and this becomes another failed bounce inside a downtrend. The macro backdrop just improved a lot, so let price confirm it, and remember, trade the data, not the fear. 📊
MEMES OF THE DAY 🤣
Galaxy brain risk management right here 🧠
Say it louder for the ones still going all in 📢
