What’s good, traders? Ezekiel here. Let’s cut through the noise and break down the market—what’s going on, why it counts, and how to move like a seasoned trader.
- Today's market mayhem. S&P 500, EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and XAU/USD today
- The Fed held rates, the dot plot screams only one cut this year, and Powell basically said “we have no idea what's coming”
- The 20 millionth Bitcoin just got mined, meaning only 1 million BTC will ever be created again, and the market is starting to notice
- Trading psychology determines if you succeed or fail, we break down the mental traps destroying your trading in our video
WEEKLY MARKET MAYHEM🔥
For this week's market mayhem, here’s what we got for you today:
The Fed Held Rates, The Dot Plot Says One Cut, And Powell Basically Told The Market To Figure It Out 🏦
Thursday was rough. The S&P 500 dropped 1.51% to 6,506.48, its lowest close of the entire year, after the market spent 24 hours digesting what came out of the Fed meeting. And what came out was not comforting.
The FOMC held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, which was expected. But the real damage came from the dot plot and Powell's press conference, which basically told the market: we're not cutting rates anytime soon, and we have no idea how the war is going to play out.
Here's the number that hurt the most: seven out of 19 FOMC participants want zero rate cuts in 2026. Another seven want just one. That means 14 out of 19 members see either no cuts or one cut this year 📊 Before the Iran war started, markets were pricing in two or three cuts. That dream is officially dead.
Powell's press conference made things worse. He said “it is too soon to know” the impact of the Middle East conflict on the economy. He acknowledged that inflation expectations have risen recently, “likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices,” and admitted the Fed has not made as much progress on inflation as it had hoped. When the Fed Chair uses phrases like “we just don't know” and “if we were ever going to skip an SEP, this would be a good one,” that's not confidence-inspiring.
The updated projections showed PCE inflation bumped up to 2.7% for 2026, higher than December's estimate. GDP growth was revised slightly higher to 2.4%, which sounds positive until you realize the Fed is basically saying the economy is growing but inflation refuses to die.
And then there's the political circus 🎪 Trump continued criticizing Powell for not calling an emergency meeting to cut rates, saying “a third-grade student would know” this is the time to cut. Meanwhile, Trump's own Justice Department is pursuing a case against Powell over the Fed's headquarters renovation, which a judge has already tossed out, calling it a pretext to pressure the Fed. But U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro is appealing. And Senator Tillis is blocking Warsh's nomination until the Powell investigation is resolved.
So Powell is fighting inflation, fighting the war's uncertainty, fighting the White House, and fighting a court case, all while trying to run the most important central bank on the planet. No wonder the market sold off.
The Dow closed at 46,021, its lowest of the year, and both the Dow and Nasdaq are now trading below their 200-day moving averages. Oil settled at $96.14 per barrel for WTI while Brent hit $108.65. The Nasdaq posted 276 new 52-week lows in a single session.
🤔 Asia Forex Mentor Insights
The Fed's message is clear: don't expect help from rate cuts. With 14 of 19 members projecting one cut or none, the market needs to recalibrate its expectations. For forex traders, the dollar should remain supported as long as the Fed stays hawkish and geopolitical risk keeps safe-haven demand alive. Watch USD/JPY and EUR/USD closely, because the rate differential story just got reinforced.
For equity traders, the S&P breaking below its 200-day moving average is a bearish technical signal that shouldn't be ignored. The market is now trading on two narratives simultaneously, Fed policy uncertainty AND war uncertainty, and that combination creates an environment where rallies are likely to be shallow and short-lived until one of those uncertainties resolves.
The 20 Millionth Bitcoin Just Got Mined, And The Scarcity Story Is About To Get Very Loud 🟠
While stocks are falling apart and the Fed is shrugging its shoulders, something historic just happened in Bitcoin that flew under most people's radar.
On March 10, the 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined ⛏️
That might sound like just a number, but let's put it in perspective: Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins. Only 1 million BTC will ever be created from this point forward, and the mining schedule means it will take approximately 114 years to mine the remaining coins thanks to the halving mechanism that cuts the block reward in half roughly every four years.
In plain English, 95% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is already in circulation. The supply tap is barely dripping now, and it's only going to slow down from here.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is showing surprising resilience. While the S&P 500 just hit its lowest close of the year and the Dow entered 2026-low territory, BTC is holding steady around $70,400, actually gaining 1.5% on the day. That's a notable divergence from the pattern we saw in February when Bitcoin was selling off alongside everything else.
Some analysts are starting to raise the question of whether Bitcoin is decoupling from traditional risk assets, pointing out that this is BTC's longest negative correlation with the S&P 500 since 2020. The last time Bitcoin decoupled from equities, it was followed by a strong upward rally. That doesn't guarantee a repeat, but it's worth watching.
On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC announced a historic collaboration on crypto oversight earlier this month, signaling a move toward a unified regulatory framework instead of the turf war that has plagued the industry for years. This was met with relief across the sector, as clear rules from both agencies working together removes one of the biggest overhangs that has been keeping institutional money cautious.
Bitcoin's market cap sits at roughly $1.33 trillion, still far ahead of Ethereum's $233 billion. Despite being down about 44% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, the fundamentals underneath the market, the scarcity milestone, the regulatory clarity, and the institutional ETF infrastructure, are all quietly strengthening.
🤔 Asia Forex Mentor Insights
The 20 millionth Bitcoin being mined is not a trading signal, it's a structural narrative shift. When 95% of supply is already mined and the remaining 5% trickles out over a century, the scarcity argument gets significantly stronger with every halving cycle. For traders, the more immediate focus should be on Bitcoin's behavior relative to equities.
If BTC continues to hold $70,000 while the S&P keeps falling, that divergence could attract institutional capital looking for uncorrelated returns. Key levels to watch are $70,000 as support and $73,000 to $74,000 as near-term resistance (the March high).
The Fear & Greed Index at 25 (Extreme Fear) is historically a zone where long-term accumulation has outperformed. But in the short term, this market is still hostage to geopolitical headlines, so position sizing and risk management matter more than conviction right now.
MEMES OF THE DAY 🤣
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