Following the release of the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) Q2 2024 Quarterly Report, analysts from both local and international banks predict that the central bank will continue to lower interest rates for the rest of the year.
Economists at Banorte forecast a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in September, with expectations that rates will close the year at 10.25%.
Citibanamex projects rate reductions of a quarter percentage point in September, November, and December, with Banxico’s reference rate reaching 10.00%. The bank points to the anticipated start of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, which would likely reduce pressure on the Mexican Peso and provide Banxico the flexibility to lower borrowing costs.
At Monex, analysts also expect the reference rate to end the year at 10.25%, with cuts likely starting in September. They consider the November and December meetings as potential opportunities for further adjustments.
Goldman Sachs predicts a series of 25 bps rate cuts at each of the remaining three meetings this year, which would bring the interest rate down to 10.00% by the end of 2024.
