Learn To Trade Forex • Best Forex Trading Course • AsiaForexMentor

EUR/USD Rises as Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key Data

4.0
Overall Trust Index

Written by:

Ezekiel Chew

Last updated on:

September 6, 2024

The EUR/USD pair advanced for the second consecutive day on Thursday, reclaiming the 1.1100 level as the U.S. dollar faced broad selling pressure ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Investors are searching for further indications that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate a rate-cutting cycle in September, but U.S. data will need to continue showing signs of weakness to keep those hopes alive.

Economic releases from the Eurozone provided little support for the Euro after EU Retail Sales for July fell short of expectations. Year-over-year Retail Sales registered a -0.1% decline for the year ending in July, missing the forecasted rebound to 0.1% and comparing unfavorably to the revised -0.4% contraction from the previous month.

In the U.S., the latest data from payroll processor ADP showed that the economy added just 99,000 new jobs in August, down from a revised 111,000 in July and well below the expected 145,000. This marks the lowest increase since early 2021 and has reignited concerns that the U.S. could be heading towards a recession.

The ADP report is often seen as an early indicator for the NFP report, though its accuracy can be inconsistent. August's NFP data will provide the last major labor market update before the Fed’s rate decision on September 18, where policymakers are widely anticipated to begin a rate-cutting cycle. The NFP print for August is expected to show an increase of 160,000 jobs, up from 114,000 in the previous month.

According to the CME Group, the rate markets currently indicate a 40% probability that the Fed will implement a 50 basis point (bps) cut later this month, with a 60% chance of a more modest 25 bps reduction. Friday's NFP data will likely be a critical factor for investors in gauging the extent of the Fed's first rate cut since March 2020, when it slashed rates by 100 bps.

Despite ongoing challenges, buyers continue to maintain interest, although a full bullish recovery has yet to materialize. The EUR/USD pair recently reached a 13-month high above 1.1200 last week, and a temporary pullback in the dollar has traders scrambling to maintain a bullish stance.

The pair remains comfortably above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0845, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, EUR/USD still faces potential downward pressure, with sellers targeting levels just above the 50-day EMA at 1.0956.

EUR/USD Daily Chart as of September 5th, 2024 (Source: FXStreet)

About Ezekiel Chew​

Ezekiel Chew, founder and head of training at Asia Forex Mentor, is a renowned forex expert, frequently invited to speak at major industry events. Known for his deep market insights, Ezekiel is one of the top traders committed to supporting the trading community. Making six figures per trade, he also trains traders working in banks, fund management, and prop trading firms.

This is Why the Real Move Begins After Bitcoin Clears 120K

Bitcoin just went over $120,000, and it didn’t even blink. After Bitcoin traded sideways near $100K for months, the original cryptocurrency finally got rid of the rust and ran away. This rally isn’t just a normal hype-fueled pump; it’s clean, consistent, and remarkably mature. What’s changed? From “Is It Dead?”

Read More

Bitcoin Just Exploded Past $111K and This Changes Everything

Bitcoin just smashed its all-time high, cruising past $111,000 like a Bugatti on an open road. But this isn’t your average crypto pump. The players behind this move are no longer Reddit mobs or moonboys, they’re wearing suits, managing billions, and calling it “risk-managed exposure.” As of late Wednesday, Bitcoin

Read More

The Real Secrets to Making Money in the Digital Wild West!

The stories are all over: how people become wealthy beyond their dreams in crypto almost overnight. On the one hand, it is a fact that the cryptocurrency market provides mind-blowing opportunities; on the other hand, it is not a magic money tree. What you really require to make money with

Read More

Coinbase CEO Says Bitcoin Could Be the World’s New Money!

Imagine a world where the US Dollar isn’t the most important currency anymore. It sounds like something from a science fiction movie, but the head of one of the biggest cryptocurrency companies in the world just said it could become reality sooner than you think! Brian Armstrong, the CEO of

Read More

3 HUGE Things You Need to Know After Meta’s Move!

Get ready for some major tremors in the world of Artificial Intelligence! Scale AI, a company that’s been quietly powering the AI revolution behind the scenes, just dropped two bombshell announcements that are shaking up the entire industry. Not only is tech giant Meta pouring a “significant” amount of money

Read More

EUR/USD Rises as Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key Data

4.0
Overall Trust Index

Written by:

Updated:

September 6, 2024
The EUR/USD pair advanced for the second consecutive day on Thursday, reclaiming the 1.1100 level as the U.S. dollar faced broad selling pressure ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Investors are searching for further indications that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate a rate-cutting cycle in September, but U.S. data will need to continue showing signs of weakness to keep those hopes alive. Economic releases from the Eurozone provided little support for the Euro after EU Retail Sales for July fell short of expectations. Year-over-year Retail Sales registered a -0.1% decline for the year ending in July, missing the forecasted rebound to 0.1% and comparing unfavorably to the revised -0.4% contraction from the previous month. In the U.S., the latest data from payroll processor ADP showed that the economy added just 99,000 new jobs in August, down from a revised 111,000 in July and well below the expected 145,000. This marks the lowest increase since early 2021 and has reignited concerns that the U.S. could be heading towards a recession. The ADP report is often seen as an early indicator for the NFP report, though its accuracy can be inconsistent. August's NFP data will provide the last major labor market update before the Fed’s rate decision on September 18, where policymakers are widely anticipated to begin a rate-cutting cycle. The NFP print for August is expected to show an increase of 160,000 jobs, up from 114,000 in the previous month. According to the CME Group, the rate markets currently indicate a 40% probability that the Fed will implement a 50 basis point (bps) cut later this month, with a 60% chance of a more modest 25 bps reduction. Friday's NFP data will likely be a critical factor for investors in gauging the extent of the Fed's first rate cut since March 2020, when it slashed rates by 100 bps. Despite ongoing challenges, buyers continue to maintain interest, although a full bullish recovery has yet to materialize. The EUR/USD pair recently reached a 13-month high above 1.1200 last week, and a temporary pullback in the dollar has traders scrambling to maintain a bullish stance. The pair remains comfortably above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0845, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, EUR/USD still faces potential downward pressure, with sellers targeting levels just above the 50-day EMA at 1.0956.
EUR/USD Daily Chart as of September 5th, 2024 (Source: FXStreet)
ezekiel chew asiaforexmentor

About Ezekiel Chew

Ezekiel Chew, founder and head of training at Asia Forex Mentor, is a renowned forex expert, frequently invited to speak at major industry events. Known for his deep market insights, Ezekiel is one of the top traders committed to supporting the trading community. Making six figures per trade, he also trains traders working in banks, fund management, and prop trading firms.

RELATED ARTICLES

I consent to receiving emails and/or text message reminders for this event.

REGISTER FOR THE MASTERCLASS!