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Retail Sentiment Flaw: GBP/USD and AUD/USD Analysis

Written by:

Ezekiel Chew

Last updated on:

August 30, 2024

AUD/USD Insights:

  • 37.84% of traders are positioned long, creating a short-to-long ratio of 1.64:1.
  • Long positions have increased by 1.20% from yesterday but are down 12.53% from last week.
  • Short positions have climbed 1.79% from yesterday and are up 15.53% from last week.

Retail traders often counter the prevailing market trend, which is usually not advantageous in a trending environment. The principle that “the trend is your friend” supports the idea that a contrarian approach to sentiment can be valuable.

Recent data on AUD/USD shows a marked shift towards short positions over the past week. While there has been a reduction in long positions, short positions have surged significantly. This shift towards a net-short stance implies that, from a contrarian perspective, AUD/USD prices may continue to trend upward. The combination of current positioning with these changes points to a stronger bullish outlook for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Client Positioning as of August 30th, 2024 (Source: DailyFX)

GBP/USD Insights:

  • 24.91% of traders are positioned long, resulting in a short-to-long ratio of 3.01:1.
  • Long positions have declined 1.91% from yesterday and 5.04% from last week.
  • Short positions have grown 2.84% from yesterday and increased by 8.96% over the last week.

For GBP/USD, the retail sentiment reveals a much stronger bias toward short positions. The number of traders holding long positions has consistently decreased both day-over-day and week-over-week, while short positions have risen significantly. This increasing net-short sentiment generally suggests that GBP/USD may continue to rise. The current stance, coupled with recent shifts, reinforces a bullish contrarian bias for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Client Positioning as of August 30th, 2024 (Source: DailyFX)

About Ezekiel Chew​

Ezekiel Chew, founder and head of training at Asia Forex Mentor, is a renowned forex expert, frequently invited to speak at major industry events. Known for his deep market insights, Ezekiel is one of the top traders committed to supporting the trading community. Making six figures per trade, he also trains traders working in banks, fund management, and prop trading firms.

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Retail Sentiment Flaw: GBP/USD and AUD/USD Analysis

Written by:

Updated:

August 30, 2024

AUD/USD Insights:

  • 37.84% of traders are positioned long, creating a short-to-long ratio of 1.64:1.
  • Long positions have increased by 1.20% from yesterday but are down 12.53% from last week.
  • Short positions have climbed 1.79% from yesterday and are up 15.53% from last week.
Retail traders often counter the prevailing market trend, which is usually not advantageous in a trending environment. The principle that "the trend is your friend" supports the idea that a contrarian approach to sentiment can be valuable. Recent data on AUD/USD shows a marked shift towards short positions over the past week. While there has been a reduction in long positions, short positions have surged significantly. This shift towards a net-short stance implies that, from a contrarian perspective, AUD/USD prices may continue to trend upward. The combination of current positioning with these changes points to a stronger bullish outlook for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD Client Positioning as of August 30th, 2024 (Source: DailyFX)

GBP/USD Insights:

  • 24.91% of traders are positioned long, resulting in a short-to-long ratio of 3.01:1.
  • Long positions have declined 1.91% from yesterday and 5.04% from last week.
  • Short positions have grown 2.84% from yesterday and increased by 8.96% over the last week.
For GBP/USD, the retail sentiment reveals a much stronger bias toward short positions. The number of traders holding long positions has consistently decreased both day-over-day and week-over-week, while short positions have risen significantly. This increasing net-short sentiment generally suggests that GBP/USD may continue to rise. The current stance, coupled with recent shifts, reinforces a bullish contrarian bias for GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Client Positioning as of August 30th, 2024 (Source: DailyFX)
ezekiel chew asiaforexmentor

About Ezekiel Chew

Ezekiel Chew, founder and head of training at Asia Forex Mentor, is a renowned forex expert, frequently invited to speak at major industry events. Known for his deep market insights, Ezekiel is one of the top traders committed to supporting the trading community. Making six figures per trade, he also trains traders working in banks, fund management, and prop trading firms.

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