Fed’s inflation strategy under microscope as May PCE data looms
Federal Reserve officials are preparing for a critical moment in their battle against inflation, with May’s personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data set for release on Friday. This data is expected to offer fresh insights into whether the Fed’s strategy is successfully steering inflation towards its 2% annual target, a necessary milestone before any consideration […]
FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500: Week’s Outlook Ahead of US PCE Data
FTSE 100 Maintains A Cautious Uptrend The FTSE 100 is currently trading in a range, holding above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 8,213, yet staying below the recent peak of 8,314 seen on Tuesday. A breakout above this level could target the early June high of 8,364. Conversely, a drop below last Friday’s […]
EUR/USD Volatility Alert: US Data and French Elections
French Elections Set the Stage The initial round of the French elections is slated for this Sunday, with the right-wing National Rally (RN) party leading in the polls but lacking sufficient seats to form a government. Recent polls suggest the RN will garner between 31.5% to 35% of the vote, followed by the People’s Front, […]
JPY Pairs Sentiment Update: Retail Positions Analyzed
USD/JPY – Interpreting Market Sentiment Recent retail trader data indicates a deep divide in the USD/JPY market, with only 16.98% of traders holding net-long positions, translating to a notable short-to-long ratio of 4.89 to 1. Although there’s a slight increase in net-long traders by 1.36% since yesterday, there has been a decrease of 10.94% over […]
Fed rate cut hopes rise as Asian shares fall
Asian markets tumbled on Thursday amid heightened anticipation for a key U.S. inflation report and renewed yet ineffective measures from China to revive its struggling property sector. Major benchmarks in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney each fell more than 1%, reflecting broad regional uncertainty. Anticipation Builds for U.S. Inflation Report The focal point for global […]
USD/JPY Outlook: Skepticism Over MoF’s Influence
YEN Deprecation Viewed as Unjustified by Japan’s Finance Ministry Masato Kanda, Japan’s primary currency authority at the Ministry of Finance (MoF), has voiced strong objections to the yen’s rapid decline, which he deems speculative and unwarranted. Despite his warnings, the USD/JPY pair has surged past levels that previously triggered official interventions. Kanda highlighted his deep […]
Dow and Nasdaq climb, Nikkei lags
Dow Jones 30 Advances The Dow Jones experienced a rally on Monday, offsetting recent declines. Friday’s activity saw the index rebound from its rising trendline support, setting its sights on the trendline resistance established by the May record high. Surpassing this resistance, and the 39,000 level, could propel the Dow towards the 40,000 milestone. Conversely, […]
RBA Maintains Status Quo Amid Inflation Concerns
Subdued Inflation Progress, RBA Holds Rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its monetary policy settings despite acknowledging the challenges in steering inflation back to its target range. During today’s announcement, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the uncertain economic outlook, remarking that achieving the inflation target smoothly remains unlikely. She also disclosed that […]
European Markets Seek Stability After Last Week’s Decline
FTSE 100 Attempts Recovery The FTSE 100 is aiming to recoup recent losses, influenced by its European counterparts amid political upheavals from elections. Currently, the UK’s leading index has risen above its 55-day SMA, now at 8,173, with last Thursday’s peak of 8,220 nearing once again. Should the index dip below the recent low of […]
BoE and Sterling Analysis: Key Levels and Scenarios for GBP/USD and GBP/CHF
BoE Rate Decision Looms: Hold Expected Amid Economic Signals The Bank of England (BoE) is poised for its Thursday meeting, anticipated to maintain interest rates at their highest in 16 years. Observers will keenly analyze comments from Governor Bailey and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), especially about the prospects of a rate cut. With inflation […]
Mixed Performance: Nasdaq Climbs, Dow and Nikkei Struggle
Dow’s Post-CPI Decline The Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced a decline following the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, failing to maintain the post-CPI gains. With expectations for rate cuts in 2024 reduced to one from two, investor sentiment has soured, prompting a potential retracement to levels of 38,000 or even the April lows around 37,500. […]
Gold Price Stability Key for Range Trading
Gold’s Trading Range Holds Potential Gold’s price action on the daily chart has settled into a familiar range-bound pattern, suggesting potential for range trading in the coming weeks. For traders to capitalize on this, the crucial support level must remain intact, requiring precise risk management strategies including tight stop-loss orders. Since April, gold has fluctuated […]
EUR/GBP Sentiment Analysis: Peak Long Positions
Current Trading Sentiment for EUR/GBP Retail trader data indicates that 81.43% of traders are net-long on EUR/GBP, with the long-to-short ratio at 4.39 to 1. This level of net-long positions has not been seen since May 24, when the EUR/GBP was trading near 0.85. The proportion of traders net-long has increased by 3.39% since yesterday […]
Market Movements: Nasdaq Soars, Dow and Nikkei Stumble
Dow Falters Post-CPI The Dow Jones Industrial Average has retreated following the Federal Reserve meeting, unable to sustain the initial gains post-U.S. CPI announcement. With expectations of fewer rate cuts in 2024—now anticipated to be just one, down from two—the sentiment has dampened, leading to a decline. The index risks falling to 38,000, possibly reaching […]
Mixed Signals from US Data, Nvidia Surge, and ECB Rate Talks
Market Dynamics: Bonds and Stocks React The US economic data released yesterday presented a mixed picture: a disappointing ADP jobs report with only 152K new private jobs in May—well below the expected 175K—and robust growth in the services sector, marking the strongest expansion in nine months. Bond traders reacted more to the weak employment data, […]
Market Recovery: DAX 40, and S&P 500 Bounce Back
FTSE 100 Stages Comeback The FTSE 100 displayed a potentially bullish hammer formation on Tuesday, signaling a possible reversal. Confirmation will hinge on a daily chart close above Tuesday’s high of 8,268. Stability is supported by Tuesday’s low and the April-to-June uptrend from 8,199 to 8,192, setting the stage to revisit Monday’s high at 8,364. […]
US Dollar’s Decline Pauses Post Strong ISM Services Data; Eyes on NFP
The latest ISM services report highlights a robust state of US business activity, surpassing both forecasts and the previous month’s readings. Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), notes, “May’s composite index rise was driven by notably higher business activity, accelerated orders, and slower supplier deliveries, despite ongoing employment contraction. Respondents reported […]
USD Setups: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF Levels to Watch
USD Setups: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF Levels to Watch There’s been a notable decline in fortunes for the US as far as economic data is concerned. Economic growth has moderated and now looks unlikely to make a comeback after the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast revealed a massive turnaround in second-quarter growth, from a prior 4+ percent […]
Dow, CAC40 Struggle; Nasdaq 100 Strong
Dow Drifts Lower The index rebounded sharply on Friday but suffered a wobble on Monday, finishing well off the lows. The situation remains finely poised; sellers might drive the price back to, and then below, 38,000, reinforcing the short-term bearish view. Should the price close above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which held back […]
Euro Rate Decision Preview: EUR/USD, EUR/CHF Analysis
Euro Rate Cut Likely as ECB Eyes Economic Stimulus A 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB this week is widely anticipated, following multiple committee endorsements. Since the fourth quarter of 2022, the European economy has seen minimal growth, with GDP expansion close to zero. Recent progress in controlling inflation, which experienced a minor […]
